Macro

Macro Update For Week 26/9/2022 – 30/9/2022:Sep 26, 2022

When the overall economic health is measured by the S&P Global preliminary composite PMI within the Euro area which in turn fell from 48.9 in August to 48.2 in September for a third consecutive month, we are allowed to conclude that the Eurozone walks into a recessionary environment.

With unstoppable inflation reaching 9.1% in August, demand has lost its momentum resulting in a rising in goods and products. Moreover, the Manufacturing PMI dropped from 49.6 to 48.5, as well as the Services PMI from 49.8 to 48.9. Besides all of these worse readings, ECB’s financial team has approximately revised its inflation projections, to an expected average of 8.1% in 2022, 5.5% in 2023, and 2.3% in 2024.

The most significant index in Eurozone, DAX40, dropped by -3.59% weekly and 24.6% from its peak at 16290 in November 2021, following the downward trend of other global indices like S&P 500 and DOW30 in the U.S.

In more detail, S&P500 dropped -by 4.65%, DOW30 -by 4.26%, and NASDAQ Composite -by 4.64% weekly. FED and its President Mr. Powel increased for a fourth consecutive time the interest rate by 75 basis points, reaching 3.25%, saying that they are going to continue to raise the rate by exceeding 4.5% in 2023 since they find the appropriate equilibrium for the economy. Last month, the inflation rate in the U.S rose 8.2% YoY, which is a 40-year record high for 6 consecutive months above 8%. Since inflation is a global phenomenon, other Central Banks followed or will follow the same rate hike policy, as BoE, and BoJ.

The Economic Calendar of the week (26/9 – 30/9) has very interesting readings, such as the Germany Gross Domestic Product for Q3, Germany Ifo Business Climate for September,  Eurozone M3 supply for September, U.S Core Durable Goods Orders for September,  U.S S&P House Price index for September, U.S CB Consumer Confidence for September,  U.S New Home Sales for September,  German Consumer Climate for September, U.S Crude Oil Inventories (weekly release), Germany CPI for September, U.S GDP for Q2,  U.S Initial Jobless Claims (weekly released), Japan Industrial Production for September, China Manufacturing PMI for September,  U.K GDP for Q2, Germany Unemployment Rate for September,  Eurozone CPI for September, U.S Core Personal Consumption Expenditures for September, including the speaking of Mrs. Lagarde and Mr. Powel.

From an Elliott wave and technical perspective, we see stocks in a downtrend, with DAX breaking to a new low so we think that Sp500 can do the same as the number of Puts jumps to the highest level in one day. This means that there are even more investors afraid of lower stock market. But looking at the VIX, this one is not breaking out yet. So is shock yet to come?

For our analysis on VIX chart here

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