Cable has seen a notable reversal after reaching a new high around 1.3869 and briefly moving above the 2025 high before the market turned lower. This failure to hold above the previous yearly high suggests that bullish momentum has weakened significantly.
The current decline has already extended below the lower trendline support connected from the November 2025 lows. Interestingly, this same line previously acted as resistance near 1.3560 at the end of February, reinforcing its technical importance. With price now trading below that level, the broader structure suggests that the market may have shifted into a bearish trend.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, the recent rebound can be interpreted as wave (4), which appears to have stalled near the channel resistance around 1.3450. If this labeling is correct, the pair could now be turning lower into wave (5), opening the door for additional downside in the near term.
We are also monitoring an alternative count, where the decline may be forming a potential seven-swing corrective structure. However, even in this scenario, the pattern would still require another leg lower to complete wave Y.
For now, both interpretations point in the same direction. The short-term trend remains bearish while the market trades below 1.3578, suggesting that rallies may continue to face selling pressure until that level is reclaimed.
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