EURUSD has hit a new high for 2025, which confirms we are in a fifth wave—the final leg of the impulse that started from the 2025 lows. So we should definitely start considering that this bull run could come to an end sooner rather than later. But if you look at the 4-hour chart, price can be looking for more upside, maybe even up to 1.2, till we have all the needed five subwaves up in fifth wave, that can come to an end during summer. But as long as we stay above the channel support, the uptrend remains in play with higher highs and higher swing lows.
Another chart that suggests that euro could stay in the uptrend within a five-wave bullish impulse, is also EUR Currency Index – EURX* , which is not showing a completed structure yet, and it can be headed higher after wave (4) retracement.
*EURX is a Forex‑style CFD that tracks the euro’s relative strength against a basket of major currencies—specifically USD, GBP, JPY, and CHF. Each currency has a 25 % weight in the index
Also, if you look at the COT data, large speculators are heavily long the EURO, but still not at the extreme levels we saw back in 2018, 2020 and 2023—periods when extreme optimism led to major reversals. As we know, when positioning reaches those extremes, the market is typically near a turning point. So, at some point, EURUSD will likely reach that phase too, but we’re not there yet. It may certainly happen this year, ideally after the ongoing impulsive recovery completes, as discussed above.
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