EURUSD Approaching Multiyear Technical & ECB Intervention LevelJul 8, 2022

Stocks are doing quite well despite a recession risk, which is in focus lately as CB is hiking rates despite the economic downturn in the last few months. But, it seems that word “recession” is not in FED’s vocabulary now, and this may not be change so soon after today’s NFP numbers came out above expectations, so FED will stick with hawkish policy. ECB is also trying to follow the FED and fight the inflation, which is a “must” as EURUSD moves towards parity and is currently trading at a 20-year low. We must keep in mind that a weak currency in the eurozone is making inflation even worse when you are a net importer. So, I think that inflation can come down faster, if the currency would be stronger.

EURUSD Monthly Chart
EURUSD Monthly Chart

From an Elliott wave perspective we see pair trading in a higher degree complex correction down from 2008 high, now possibly in late stages with price approaching 78.6% Fibonacci level that comes in around parity.

Technically, I assume that Eur can be much higher in years ahead, but the question is what will be the catalyst;
Higher EUR interest rates? Ukraine-Russia solution? Downturn of the USD? Maybe foreign exchange interventions?

None of us can answer this question at the moment, but technically I think that 1:1 Eur vs Usd is clearly an interesting level.

However, I think if EURUSD pair moves below parity the ECB intervention may happen. The last time they acted alone was back in 2000 when EURUSD was trading around 0.9000. So firstly, they will try to bring down inflation with higher rates, but then I think intervention is also an option, especially if pair would approach that same 0.9000 level.

Trade well,


AMD stock can be supportive for Bitcoin. Check HERE why


Any reviews, news, analysis, prices or other information contained on our website is provided as general market commentary and delivered electronically through a distribution channel to larger number of clients, therefore does not constitute investment advice or investment research. We are not trading advisors. Most of our work is for educational purposes only, with information based on Elliott Wave theory in real time. Trading forex, futures, options, stocks, cryptocurrenices or any another trading market carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors.

The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your initial investment; therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Our website and the information that we provide should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. In no event will we be liable for any loss or damage on your account in connection with, the use of our products. For any real cash investments you have to contact your financial advisor.

Any information or material contained on our website is owned by Val Global d.o.o.. Reproduction is prohibited without Val Global d.o.o. prior license in writing.

By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. Learn more.

The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this.