Good day to everyone,
We have risk-off still, with SP500 targeting the Trump trade level (read more here), so USD is still in uptrend but wedge may suggest a limited upside maybe this week.
However, the US inflation data is a new risk for the markets, and not sure if there can be any positive surprises for the markets. There are more and more speculations that FED may not only stay on hold; some even think they should hike with recent jobs data. But still, when looking at big picture and technicals, the US treasuries are trading now finally at the 2023 low, so possibly some big trends now coming into late stages. When/if treasuries are about to turn, that’s when Dollar will finally come down. From an Elliott wave perspective, I need impulse down on DXY back to 108.
Regarding Crude oil, the price is trading significantly to the upside, and one of the main reasons for this move is the Biden administration’s approval of new military aid for Ukraine worth $500 million, along with the introduction of new sanctions on Russia’s oil industry. However, this trend could still reverse if there is any progress toward a potential meeting between Trump and Putin that could lead to de-escalation or even an end to the war between Russia and Ukraine.
For more analysis check our Elliott Wave webinar below.
Grega
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