Macro

Elliott Wave Live: FED cuts 25bp, Dollar Up. Whats next?Sep 22, 2025

Good day everyone, I hope you had a wonderful weekend.

As you know, last week the dollar came off new 2025 lows after the Fed decided to cut rates by 25 basis points, but Powell sounded a bit concerned about inflation risks. That’s why the dollar has seen an interesting recovery in the last few sessions, while stocks slowed down their previous bullish momentum. I’m wondering if we could see more dollar recovery after a near-term retracement, which could even show up during some of the Fed policymakers’ speeches due today and tomorrow.

However, the key data for the dollar and yields, and potential new decisions later this year will be the US Core PCE report, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, which will be released on Friday.

Looking at the dollar index wave structure, we have a very nice rebound, and I’m wondering if maybe the low is already in place since price pushed closed in green on Friday. Personally, I would not be surprised if the dollar has already bottomed and will see more gains, but likely after some pullback first, which I will pay close attention to this week. My focus will certainly be EURUSD on the short side.

In webinar today, I also looked at metals which can be in fifth wave, while cryptos are coming down on clear “futures market manipulation”


Enjoy the recording of the webinar.

Grega

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