Good morning everyone, and hope you had a wonderful weekend. As you know, we have seen a pretty nice and strong push higher in the US dollar across the board since the FOMC, as the Fed sounded a bit hawkish. As a result, the odds for potential rate cuts are falling, while expectations for rate hikes later this year and even into 2027 are increasing. That was the main driver of the markets last week, when we also saw some slight pullbacks on stocks.
This week, however, we could see some more positive sentiment coming from the US-Iran negotiations. In fact, Iran said that the talks in Switzerland showed positive progress regarding implementation by the other side. This is something that could define new flows at the start of the week. But keep in mind that we will also have some important US data releases. The GDP and PCE inflation report will be released on June 25, with PCE beeing most important inflation data for the Fed when it comes to interest rate decisions. That’s definitely something we will have to keep an eye on. We will see whether the US yeilds sees some retracement, remains stuck in a range, or possibly makes another jump higher. On some of the other fronts, we will also get new CPI data from Australia, which I will be closely tracking as well.
When looking at the Dollar Index, we can see a pretty nice recovery. But be aware of some potential retracement in the near-future, but fristly EURUSD is about to spike below March lows.
I will talk about this and much more in our webinar, today 15CET.
In this Elliott Wave webinar, Grega Horvat reviews the latest developments across global markets, including the US-Iran negotiations, crude oil, stock market, precious metals, currencies, and more…
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