We are officially starting the last trading month of the year, which as you know can be quite interesting and volatile. At the moment markets are positioned in a risk-on mode based on Fed rate-cut expectations, and there is also some optimism around the Ukraine–Russia war potentially moving towards an end, although despite some progress it still looks like we are far away from any real agreement from the Russian side.
In today’s news you can see that BOJ’s Ueda told local business leaders that the BoJ “will consider the pros and cons of raising the policy interest rate and make decisions as appropriate” after assessing the economy, inflation, and financial markets at home and abroad. This caused a bit more gains on the Japanese yen.
Stocks futures are in a retracement, but overall it still looks fine for a potential pullback within an uptrend. Metals are also coming higher in line with a weaker dollar, and with stronger stocks and commodities currencies.
Since I mentioned the dollar — it turned around nicely last week and we now have possibly five waves down from the most recent highs, so after some retracement we would expect more weakness, especially now when the trendline support also looks ready to break this week.
As long as we are trading below 100.35 the dollar can experience further sell-off in this risk-on environment.
Fore more analysis join me in webinar later at 15cet.
Grega
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