FX market is in some tight ranges for the last two sessions, ahead of important CB policy decisions this week. We have FED, BOJ, RBA, BOE and SNB, but the most focus will be on FED and BOJ. The question is if both banks will stay in hold, or will they possibly change their policy decisions? Based on latest US data, FED may not be ready to act yet, and thats clearly visible through US yeilds that rebounded with USD last week. I assume that FED will not make any kind of new decisions, but they may delay any cuts, so the dollar can stay sideways or even see slightly more upside. On the other hand, we have BOJ with speculation that they may finally change their negative rate policy. After drop at the start of the month, USDJPY is recovering surprisingly well ahead of the event tomorrow, so if they really act, there will be big risk for USDJPY to drop IMO. If they wont deliver anything new, then USDJPY is going to stick with the current ranges.
From an Elliott wave perspective, I think the mid-term trends are not easy to predict at the moment for some of the FX pairs, but at least USDMXN looks to be breaking down with a new bearish leg, while metals are in uptrend. Cryptos are also making pullback.
I will talk about this and more in our webinar later today at 15CET. USDMXN and USD Index charts are posted below.
Grega
