Elliott Wave Live: Central Banks Will Cause Opportunities On FXMar 10, 2026

Hey people. Markets reacted sharply after the US and Israel strikes on Iran. Energy markets exploded to the upside, US yields moved higher, and the dollar rallied as investors rushed into defensive positioning. Stocks, on the other hand, came under pressure as geopolitical risk increased and energy prices jumped.

However, the reaction from the Trump suggests that the market move may have been stronger than expected. Trump appears increasingly concerned about the financial market reaction, especially the surge in energy prices and the pressure on equities. This raises the possibility that the administration could attempt to calm the situation, either through diplomatic messaging or policy steps aimed at stabilizing markets.

From a broader macro perspective, energy remains the key variable to watch. Historically, when oil and energy prices spike sharply during geopolitical events, the move often becomes unsustainable. Once energy prices start to stabilize or reverse, risk assets such as stocks tend to find a bottom. In other words, the sooner energy tops out, the sooner equities can begin forming a recovery.

But, it may not be that easy as it sounds…

Next week could become very interesting for FX markets as the focus shifts from geopolitics back to central bank policy. We have several key decisions lined up, starting with the RBA, followed by the BOC, and then the FED.

Keep in mind that currencies are likely to react primarily to the hawkish or dovish expectations around each central bank. If the RBA, FED or BOC maintain a hawkish tone, their currencies such as AUD, USD or CAD could be pulled higher as markets adjust expectations toward tighter policy or delayed rate cuts. On the other hand, if the FED maintains a hawkish stance or signals that rates will remain higher for longer, the USD could remain supported. This creates an interesting dynamic and potential opportuntinies across different FX pairs.

But what about crypto…?

CB decisions possibly creates an interesting dynamic for crypto markets, especially Bitcoin. Normally, crypto performs best when financial conditions are easing and central banks are moving into a dovish cycle. But now, when inflation is possibly a new problem again, the FX markets over the coming weeks are driven by relative central bank hawkishness, the dollar could remain relatively firm. In such an environment, it becomes harder for BTC to rally strongly against the USD, if FED is on hold or hawkisj. BTC does not have its won CB to pull it higher vs USD… 🙂 For that reason, crypto could remain more neutral or even slightly bearish while currencies adjust to central bank expectations. Cryptos could diverge from FX moves then.

Overall, the next phase in markets will likely be driven by two key factors. First, whether energy prices stabilize after the geopolitical spike. Second, how central banks position themselves in the upcoming policy decisions. Both will create important opportunities across FX, commodities and risk assets.

Grega