We experienced a busy and volatile trading session yesterday, particularly towards the end of the US trading hours when Powell highlighted a restrictive policy in the US. Notably, he announced the reduction of bond purchases from $60 billion to $25 billion starting on June 1st. This decision reflects a strategic move to slow down the economy slightly, aiming to help bring inflation down. Achieving this goal could bring the Fed closer to potential rate cuts later this year.
Despite this tightening, it’s important to note that there are no considerations for hiking rates currently, suggesting that the current rates could be maintained for an extended period. However, whenever economic data begin to show signs of weakening, there will likely be increased speculation about impending rate cuts, which could significantly influence market dynamics. During yesterday’s session, surprisingly, we observed US yields declining, while US stocks rallied—though this was short-lived as they reversed back to the downside post-press conference. Regarding the dollar, the Dollar Index also had an interesting day; it failed to break above the 106.51 high, so it remains stuck in range till NFP tomorrow.
Looking at the big picture US yeilds can still be trading at potential resistance here around 78.6% Fib for wave B. A turn down on US yeilds will be crucial for resistance on the DXY, which is at 107 then at 108.
Grega
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