Crude Oil Is In Late Stages of A Corrective Retracement. Can Bulls Wake Up?Nov 7, 2023

Crude Oil Is Finishing A Corrective Pullback Within Uptrend from technical point of view and by Elliott wave theory.

Crude oil bounced sharply back in October after attacks between Israel and Hamas. We have seen a jump of around 10% on crude oil to $90 in just a few days. In fact, back then, analysts started calling for $100 per barrel, so for me it was a bit overcrowded expectation, and that’s why we expected the opposite. Keep in mind that the market is the most sensitive when the news comes out, but then, after a few days the dust settles, and trading goes back to normal. And thats exactly what I have been expecting; a continuation lower, which makes sense from an Elliott wave perspective as energy showed us a top formation already at the end of September at 92-93 area. That was an end of an impulsive recovery from May to October, which we see it as first higher degree leg A of a three-wave A-B-C recovery, so more upside is still expected for wave C, ideally now as current A-B-C subwaves in wave B are coming into some attractive support. We are tracking final stages of wave C of B that can ideally find the base at the former wave 4 swing low, between 50% – 61,8% Fibonacci retracement that comes around $76-78 area.

Crude Oil Is Finishing A Corrective Pullback Within Uptrend Crude Oil Futures Daily Chart
Crude Oil Futures Daily Chart

The main reason why Crude oil can see another recovery is also the energy sector (XLE), which we see it consolidating within a bullish running triangle pattern for wave (4) that can push the price into all-time highs for wave (5).

Crude Oil Is Finishing A Corrective Pullback Within Uptrend XLE Daily Chart
XLE Daily Chart

As soon as Crude oil and XLE charts complete their corrections, this is when we can expect a continuation higher, ideally now at the end of 2023 or at the beginning of 2024.

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For a detailed view and more analysis like this, you may want to watch our latest recording of the webinar on November 06 2023 below:

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