Forex

Elliott Wave Live: Can Dollar Weakness Resume, and Cryptos Bounce Back?Jul 8, 2024

Hello everyone, welcome to our new updates for this week!

Before we start, just let me remind you that we are rescheduling our regular Monday Elliott Wave webinar to Tuesday at the same hour, 3 PM CET, because my daughter is celebrating her 10th birthday today, and will spend the afternoon with my family. But make sure to save this webinar link: https://youtu.be/qiq2ToLutzM

Regarding markets, the US dollar has seen a significant turn to the downside last week. Initially, this was due to a contraction in ISM Services PMI figure, and then on Friday, we received US jobs data which at first glance showed better than expected figure but the revisions were very important; we saw the numbers for May revised from 272K down to 218K, while the unemployment rate for June jumped from 4% to 4.1%. So market thinks FED should cut later this year, which sent most of assets higher while yields dropped. It will also be very interesting to see what Powell will say in his testimony tomorrow.

Elliott Wave Live: Can Dollar Weakness Resume, and Cryptos Bounce Back? DXY vs. US Yields 1H Chart
DXY vs. US Yields 1H Chart

Looking at the dollar index hourly chart, we can see a notable sell-off that continued after retesting 105.37 as resistance. This could easily be an ongoing bearish impulse, meaning we should be prepared for more weakness going into this week. Specifically, we are seeing 10-year yields down from July 1st, so be aware of potential further dollar weakness while other currencies, especially commodity currencies, can perform very well. Metals could also stay in a strong uptrend, particularly after any near-term retracement.

Elliott Wave Live: Can Dollar Weakness Resume, and Cryptos Bounce Back? BTCUSD Weekly Chart
BTCUSD Weekly Chart

Big question is, will weakness on dollar resume, and possibly build a base for cryptos? To get an answer make sure to be with us tomorrow on July 09 in webinar at 15cet.

Grega

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