Adobe (ADBE) has come under notable pressure at the start of the year, with price action accelerating to the downside and breaking below the November swing lows. This breakdown confirms renewed bearish momentum and suggests that the corrective wave four structure we were tracking has most likely concluded.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, wave four appears to have ended as a triangle formation — a common pattern before a final impulse move. With this structure now complete, the market is likely transitioning into wave five to the downside. This fifth wave would represent the final leg of a higher-degree bearish wave C, completing a broader corrective cycle that has been in place since the 2023 highs.
Looking at the weekly chart, downside risk remains open. There is still room for further weakness before any meaningful stabilization occurs. Initial support is projected near the 276 level, which aligns with prior structural demand. However, if selling pressure persists, a deeper extension toward the 240 area cannot be ruled out.
Importantly, a decisive move below the 2023 lows would strengthen the case that the larger corrective cycle is nearing completion. Such a move would likely be required before the market can begin forming a sustainable base later in the year and setting the stage for a potential long-term recovery.
For now, the technical structure favors caution, as the dominant trend remains bearish until clear signs of exhaustion or basing emerge.
Highlights
- Price is breaking below key November lows, confirming renewed bearish momentum
- Wave four likely completed as a triangle, with wave five lower now underway
- Key downside targets to watch are 276, followed by a potential extension toward 240
- A break below 2023 lows may be needed before a larger base can form later this year
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