Good morning all, and hope you had a wonderful weekend.
As you know, oil prices are pushing higher after Trump warned Tehran that the “clock is ticking,” which has added another layer of geopolitical tension to an already sensitive energy market. At the same time, equities started the week under pressure, as investors are still waiting for a meaningful breakthrough from the ongoing US-China meetings. Market expectations heading into these talks were likely too optimistic, and the lack of concrete progress is now weighing on sentiment across global indices.
US yields continue to be one of the main drivers across financial markets after stronger-than-expected CPI and PPI data last week reinforced the view that inflation remains sticky. This has helped the US dollar stay supported following its bullish close into the weekend and is also keeping pressure on risk assets overall. Higher yields remain a headwind for both stocks and cryptocurrencies, especially in the short term.
That said, we could still see temporary intraday rallies in equities this week on any positive headlines, softer economic data, or renewed optimism surrounding major earnings releases, particularly NVIDIA, which remains a key catalyst for the broader tech sector and overall market sentiment.
However, from a broader technical and Elliott Wave perspective, the current structure on major indices still suggests that a deeper corrective phase is likely unfolding before the market can establish a more sustainable bullish continuation.
Cryptocurrencies are also experiencing increased selling pressure alongside weaker equities and rising yields. Bitcoin and Ethereum remain vulnerable to further downside if risk sentiment deteriorates further, with key support levels to monitor near 75,000 for BTC and 2,000 for ETH.
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Grega
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