Crude: Shock is done; now correction-more weakness after rallyMar 12, 2026

Crude oil has seen another push to the upside after new attacks during the overnight session. However, what we are seeing here is a rally progressing in wave C, which could be the third leg of a countertrend recovery, so be aware of limited upside. However, a retest of the 96 or even the 100 resistance area cannot be ruled out, but the larger structure still suggests that the next motive structure should unfold to the downside as first five wave drop from 119 unfolded in impulsive trend. The current rebound therefore looks temporary. But it remains to be seen how deep the pullback can go, but in counter-trend moves, price often stop somewhere between the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels.

Educational Content at the end

Educational Content:

The basic 8-wave Elliott Wave pattern describes how markets move in cycles of trend (impulse) and correction. In a bear market, the main trend is down and unfolds in five waves down, followed by a three-wave corrective rally upward.

Impulse phase – 5 waves down

• Wave 1: First decline as early sellers enter.
• Wave 2: Corrective bounce, but it cannot retrace 100% of wave 1.
• Wave 3: Usually the strongest and longest decline, driven by broad participation.
• Wave 4: Corrective rally with overlapping price action.
• Wave 5: Final decline where sentiment becomes extremely bearish.

Corrective phase – 3 waves up (A-B-C)

• Wave A: First recovery against the trend.
• Wave B: Partial retracement of wave A, often trapping buyers.
• Wave C: Final upward move completing the correction.

Key Fibonacci Relationships

• Wave 2: often retraces 50%–61.8% of Wave 1
• Wave 3: commonly 161.8% of Wave 1 (sometimes 261.8%)
• Wave 4: usually retraces 23.6%–38.2% of Wave 3
• Wave 5: often equals Wave 1 (100%) or 61.8% of Wave 1–3

Corrective phase

• Wave B: typically 38.2%–78.6% of Wave A
• Wave C: often 100% of Wave A, sometimes 161.8%