Good day everyone. As you know, I was away on Friday because of the snowstorm and we ran out of electricity, but I am back now and on the normal schedule.
On Friday we saw an intraday rebound in stocks after the US Supreme Court voided most of the tariffs that President Donald Trump imposed in 2025. However, there is still a lot of uncertainty around trade policy as Trump can take some new “unexpected” actions, in his “style. Over the weekend he already responded by announcing first a 10% and then a 15% global tariffs, which could stay in place for several months. At the same time, tensions between Iran and the US are rising, which is visible in higher energy prices and metals as traders look for safety.
My thinking is that stocks may stay sideways this week, at least until we get Nvidia earnings on Wednesday. That will be closely watched to see whether the technology sector can continue pushing higher or if we see an unexpected setback.
Regarding the dollar, we have seen a nice turn lower in the last few sessions. It looks like wave C completed B wave above the 98 area, which we highlighted last week as important resistance. And it seems like we could see more near term weakness to complete a higher degree A-B-C flat formation, with strong support around 96.
So in the near term, we may see more dollar weakness or at least sideways price action until stocks start moving more clearly in one direction.
More about stocks, FX, and metals in our webinar below.
Grega
Become a premium member
Get daily Elliott Wave updates for US Single Stocks, SP500,DAX, GOLD, SILVER, CRUDE, FX, CRYPTO, etc. or apply for unlimited access to the Elliot Wave educational videos.