Hey, traders, hope everyone had a nice weekend!
It’s going to be an important week, with the focus on the U.S. CPI inflation data, which could provide more clues on whether the Fed will go for 25 or even 50 basis point cut. Keep in mind that Friday’s jobs data showed a fairly “okay” number, so it may not be enough to confirm either 50 or 25 basis points. Perhaps a balance between inflation and jobs would make 25 basis points more appropriate anyhow, especially if inflation y/y comes out beween 2.6-2.9%.
On Friday, after the NFP report, the dollar found some support during the U.S. session, and as a result, the stock market moved to the downside. However, if you look at the Dollar Index (DXY), there’s still a potential wave four correction going on, while the S&P 500 could be looking for support around the 61.8% retracement level. So, some support may not be far away, but the Dollar Index will depend heavily on the euro this week, especially with the ECB decision and expected rate cuts.
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