Last week was very interesting and volatile, the USD moved lower as US yields keeps dropping. We have also seen dollar weakness pushed by speculation that BOJ is ready to change their negative rate policy, and also ECB where members are not convinced yet about cutting rates. It appears that FED should do it first, and that’s why this “sentiment” is driving down yields and other markets have been pushed higher. NFP figures came out higher on Friday, but the unemployment rate jumped to 3.9%, so possibly FED is closer to cuts than we think, but key data will be the US CPI release tomorrow. Expectations are for no change compared to the actual number in the previous month, 3.1%! Figure around 3% or lower will make dollar much weaker. But above 3.2% will cause dollar rally.
From an Elliott wave perspective, DXY is at the decision point for the next short-term move, but based on the mid-term view of the emerging markets and yields, I think USD weakness will resume after any rallies.
I talked about this and more in our EW webinar below.
Grega
Webinar:
