Post-NFP moves on the FX markets. Key CPI data ahead. USD shows a bullish Elliott wave pattern, while stocks consolidate, metals retreat.
Despite robust Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and a strong jobs report last Friday, the FX market did not go far..However, this week could see new dynamics with the release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the US, Australia, China, and Tokyo. Technically, the USD shows a bullish trend in the short term, after an impulsive rise from low of 100.32 (March 2024 contract), suggesting that USD can see more upside after current B wave, so other currencies might weaken further against the USD before market equilibrium is restored. The stock market is also undergoing a phase of consolidation, which, in my opinion, is not yet complete. The DAX index, in particular, is at an initial key support level near 16450-16500 at the beginning of the week, though a more significant and crucial support is around 16300.In the metals sector, there seems to be a deeper retracement ongoing, as indicated by the false bullish signal in gold prices back on December 04 with a “fakeout” pattern. I assume that metals may continue to experience some more weakness, but this will largely hinge on US bond yields and market reactions to the upcoming US CPI data.
As for cryptocurrencies, the market is currently in a holding pattern, with investors and traders eagerly anticipating the potential approval of a crypto-related Exchange Traded Fund (ETF), expected to be announced either this Wednesday or Thursday.
Dont forget, we have a webinar today at 15CET.
Grega
